ABSTRACT
Understanding historical environmental determinants associated with the risk of elevated marine water contamination could enhance monitoring marine beaches in a Canadian setting, which can also inform predictive marine water quality models and ongoing climate change preparedness efforts. This study aimed to assess the combination of environmental factors that best predicts Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration at public beaches in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, by combining the region's microbial water quality data and publicly available environmental data from 2013 to 2021. We developed a Bayesian log-normal mixed-effects regression model to evaluate predictors of geometric E. coli concentrations at 15 beaches in the Metro Vancouver Region. We identified that higher levels of geometric mean E. coli levels were predicted by higher previous sample day E. coli concentrations, higher rainfall in the preceding 48 h, and higher 24-h average air temperature at the median or higher levels of the 24-h mean ultraviolet (UV) index. In contrast, higher levels of mean salinity were predicted to result in lower levels of E. coli. Finally, we determined that the average effects of the predictors varied highly by beach. Our findings could form the basis for building real-time predictive marine water quality models to enable more timely beach management decision-making.
Subject(s)
Bathing Beaches , Escherichia coli , Bayes Theorem , Water Quality , British Columbia , Environmental Monitoring , Water Microbiology , FecesABSTRACT
Background: Public health surveillance data do not always capture all cases, due in part to test availability and health care seeking behaviour. Our study aimed to estimate under-ascertainment multipliers for each step in the reporting chain for COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada. Design and methods: We applied stochastic modeling to estimate these proportions for the period from March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic) through to May 23, 2020, and for three distinct windows with different laboratory testing criteria within this period. Results: For each laboratory-confirmed symptomatic case reported to Toronto Public Health during the entire period, the estimated number of COVID-19 infections in the community was 18 (5th and 95th percentile: 12, 29). The factor most associated with under-reporting was the proportion of those who sought care that received a test. Conclusions: Public health officials should use improved estimates to better understand the burden of COVID-19 and other similar infections.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Collaborative research is being increasingly implemented in Africa to study health-related issues, for example, the lack of evidence on disease burden, in particular for the presumptive high load of foodborne diseases. The FOCAL (Foodborne disease epidemiology, surveillance, and control in African LMIC) Project is a multi-partner study that includes a population survey to estimate the foodborne disease burden in four African low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our multi-partner study team had members from seven countries, all of whom contributed to the project from the grant application stage, and who play(ed) specific roles in designing and implementing the population survey. MAIN TEXT: In this paper, we applied Larkan et al.'s framework for successful research partnerships in global health to self-evaluate our project's collaboration, management, and implementation process. Our partnership formation considered the interplay and balance between operations and relations. Using Larkan et al.'s seven core concepts (i.e., focus, values, equity, benefit, communication, leadership, and resolution), we reviewed the process stated above in an African context. CONCLUSION: Through our current partnership and research implementing a population survey to study disease burden in four African LMICs, we observed that successful partnerships need to consider these core concepts explicitly, apply the essential leadership attributes, perform assessment of external contexts before designing the research, and expect differences in work culture. While some of these experiences are common to research projects in general, the other best practices and challenges we discussed can help inform future foodborne disease burden work in Africa.
ABSTRACT
National burden of foodborne disease (FBD) studies are essential to establish food safety as a public health priority, rank diseases, and inform interventions. In recent years, various countries have taken steps to implement them. Despite progress, the current burden of disease landscape remains scattered, and researchers struggle to translate findings to input for policy. We describe the current knowledge base on burden of FBDs, highlight examples of well-established studies, and how results have been used for decision-making. We discuss challenges in estimating burden of FBD in low-resource settings, and the experience and opportunities deriving from a large-scale research project in these settings. Lastly, we highlight the role of international organizations and initiatives in supporting countries to develop capacity and conduct studies.
